An reference ship based power prediction method

One of the most difficult and complex parts of ship design is the prediction of required propulsive power. Various methods to calculate this power exist, such as simulations or the well-known Holtrop-Mennen method but these require a lot more information then is normally available at the very start of a ship design. Some use cases require a more simplified (and less accurate) method. One such a method is described below. In ship design, it is common to use reference ships both to check the accuracy of the calculations and to make first estimations early in the design process. Because of this, it is important to be able to compare characteristics of real ships and real ship designs to see if they match a new design. The accuracy of this method depends on a good choice of reference ship for the new design: the closer the reference ship(s) are to the new design, the more accurate this method becomes.

The formulas and their meaning

To compare reference ships, it is required to compare the different characteristics of a ship that influence the resistance. The below formulas are used for that purpose. To make using these formula’s as simple as possible, the formulas are brought together into one formula in which all the defining characteristics for this method are brought together.

The resistance formula

• R = ½ * ρ * C_{r * S * v²}

In which:

• ρ is the density of the medium (in our case either water or salt water, 1000 or 1025 kg / m3)
• Cr is the resistance coefficient (more on that later)
• S is the wetted surface in square meters
• v is the velocity in m/s

The effective power formula

To get a power requirement from the resistance, it is require to multiply this resistance with the speed. Resulting is the power that needs to be delivered to propel the ship forward at the given speed.

• P_effective = R * v

In which:

• R is the resistance from the above formula
• v is the velocity in m/s

The engine power formula

The effective power requirement is however not the same as the power a ships engines have to deliver. This is because no propulsion method is ever 100% efficient. For example, a 50% efficient propulsive system results in twice the engine power compared to the effective power.

• P_engine = P_effective * η

in which:

• P_effective is the power required in the above formula
• η is the efficiency of the propulsive system.

The completed formula

When all the above formulas are filled in according to their relation, this results in the following:

• P_engine = (½ * ρ * C_r * S * v²) * v * η

This can still be slightly simplified to the final formula.

• P_engine = η * ½ * ρ * C_r * S * v³

Using the formula for the comparison

The basis of this power prediction method is comparing this formula between 2 different designs. This allows us to look at each value separately and cross away the ones which do not differ or do not differ significantly. If ship one and ship two are compared, that would result in the following formula:

• η₁ * ρ₁ * C_r1 * S₁ * v₂³ = (η₂ * ρ₂ * C_r2 * S₂ * v₂³) * Power Coefficient

The power coefficient is a dimensionless factor between the required powers. For example: if the result is that ship 2 requires 10% more power, the Power Coefficient is 1.10. This daunting formula might still look very complicated, but is simplified easily when the reference ships are well chosen. For example: in many cases the density of the water and the propulsive efficiency will not differ a lot between the reference ships. In such a case, we could simply remove these from the formula because calculating them would not any value as they would just be equal on both sides. In that situation, the formula would be brought back to just the following:

• C_r1 * S₁ * v₂³ = (C_r2 * S₂ * v₂³) * Power Coefficient

The value of having similar reference ships is proven here: the closer they are, the more characteristics we can ignore and the smaller the influence of the remaining characteristics are. In essence, the above formula(s) describe the base of this method. However, to fully use the potential of this method one has to know how to estimate or define each of the characteristics used. The next few chapters will define each of the characteristics used, show what they are influenced by and provide some help to estimate and use them. An interesting side effect of using a comparison for the power prediction is that there is no requirement to use the SI system of measurement units. As long as the same units are used for the same characteristics on both sides of the “equal” sign they will not influence the outcome as the method uses a relative outcome. It is however recommended to use the SI system of measurement units.